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Gene Walden
Senior Finance Editor


Economy on a teeter-totter as Fed tries to tame inflation

By Gene Walden, Senior Finance Editor | 08/05/2022

Thrivent Asset Management Contributors to this report: Steve Lowe, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist; John Groton, Jr., CFA, Director of Administration and Materials & Energy Research; Matthew Finn, CFA, Head of Equity Mutual Funds; and Jeff Branstad, CFA, Model Portfolio Manager

The stock and bond markets rebounded nicely in July, unemployment dropped to a post-pandemic low of just 3.5%, manufacturing remained solid, and gas prices at the pump retreated – all favorable signs for the economy.

But for the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is pulling out all the stops to slow the economy in order to fight inflation, the continued strength of the economy has been a double-edged sword. The better the economy, the more difficult it becomes for the Fed to stem inflation.

The Fed hiked rates an additional 0.75% in July and has raised rates a total of 2.25% so far this year, while tightening the money supply. Its efforts have shown some signs of progress, with the economy posting its second straight quarter of negative growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) slipped 0.9% on an annualized basis in the 2nd quarter after dropping 1.6% in the 1st quarter.

While two straight quarters of negative GDP growth meets the traditional definition of a recession, the current state of the economy is much different than most past recessions because of the strong labor market, solid consumer and corporate balance sheets, decent wage growth, and continuing demand for goods that are in short supply.

On the other hand, the Fed’s actions have been effective in slowing the overheated housing market, curbing consumer spending, and driving up credit card balances by about 13% over the past year, according to the Federal Reserve of New York.

In addition, some companies have announced that employee lay-offs could be on the horizon, indicating some softening in the labor market.

The manufacturing sector recorded its 26th consecutive month of growth in July, although that growth has slowed, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) August report. Eleven of 18 sectors tracked by ISM reported growth in manufacturing activity in July while seven reported a contraction in activity. The report also noted that new order rates have continued to slow, supply deliveries have improved, and prices of supplies, which had been inflated, have trended lower.

Outlook: As the Fed continues its efforts to tighten the money supply, that may lead to additional weaknesses across the economy. The Fed is expected to continue to raise rates over the next few months, which could trigger continued volatility in both the stock and bond markets.

The U.S. could see a continuing softening of the labor market, although with about 11 million current job openings, employment should remain stable for some time to come. A strong job market could keep consumer spending at a relatively healthy level in the near future. The banking system, which has been strong in recent months, could benefit from rising interest rates.

The housing market has already seen a drop-off in new mortgage applications and housing starts in recent months, which may continue in the months ahead.

Stock market valuations, which reached a relatively high level at the peak of the market, have fallen to a more reasonable level as stock prices have declined. Although valuations would not be considered excessive at this point, they could fall further before reaching historically low levels. While stocks regained some lost ground in July, uncertainty over inflation, interest rates, corporate profitability, and the economy could drive prices back down in the coming months. However, for long-term investors, falling stock prices could be seen as an opportunity to take advantage of lower prices.

Bond market investors may also sense an opportunity at current interest rate levels, with yields now in the 4% to 8% range, depending on quality and term to maturity.

Drilling down

U.S. stocks rebound

The S&P 500 Index surged 9.11% in July, from 3,785.38 at the end of June to 4,130.29 at the July close. The total return of the S&P 500, including dividends, was up 9.22% for the month. Year to date, the total return was a negative 12.58%. (The S&P 500 is a market-cap-weighted index that represents the average performance of a group of 500 large capitalization stocks.)

The NASDAQ Index did even better, up 12.35% for the month, from 11,028.74 at the end of June to 12,390.69 at the July close. However, year to date, the NASDAQ was still down 20.80%. (The NASDAQ – National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations – is an electronic stock exchange with more than 3,300 company listings.)

Retail sales inch higher

Retail sales were up 1.0% from the previous month in June, and 8.4% from a year earlier according to the July 15 Department of Commerce retail sales report.

Auto sales were up 0.9% in June and down 1.1% from a year earlier. Building material sales were down 0.9% for the month but up 6.4% from a year earlier. Department store sales were down 2.6% for the month and down 2.9% from a year earlier.

Non-store retailers (primarily online) were up 2.2% for the month and up 9.6% from a year earlier. Restaurants and bars continued to recover from the pandemic, with sales at food services and drinking establishments up 1.0% for the month and 13.4% from a year earlier.

Employers add half a million new jobs

The economy added a whopping 528,000 new jobs in July, pushing the unemployment rate down to a post-pandemic low of just 3.5%, according to the Employment Situation Report issued August 5 by the Department of Labor. It was the 19th consecutive month of job growth in the U.S.

After holding at an already low 3.6% the past four months, the rate dropped another 0.01% in July. The 3.5% rate matched the February 2020 unemployment rate prior to the pandemic. There are now 629,000 more workers in private sector jobs than in February 2020. Since hitting a low in April 2020, employers have added 22 million jobs.

Employment growth was strong in several key industries, including leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, construction, and manufacturing.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls were up $0.15 per hour in July at $32.27 per hour. Over the past 12 months, average earnings have increased by 5.2%.

All 11 sectors gain for the month

All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 posted gains in July, led by Consumer Discretionary – which had been the worst performing sector through the first half of 2022 – up 18.94% for the month. Information Technology was up 13.54%, Energy was up 9.72%, and Industrials was up 9.50%. Through the first seven months of 2022, Energy leads all sectors by a wide margin, up 44.66%.

The chart below shows the results of the 11 sectors for the past month and year-to-date:

Treasury yields retreat

After surging to as high as 3.5% earlier this year, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has declined steadily the past several weeks, ending July at 2.64% after closing June at 2.98%. Yields declined despite another 0.75% hike in rates by the Fed in July. In all, the Fed has raised rates 2.25% in 2022, and is expected to continue to raise rates throughout the remainder of 2022 in an effort to curb inflation.

Oil prices drop

Oil prices declined in July, with the price of West Texas Intermediate, a grade of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing, dropping 6.75% for the month from $105.76 per barrel at the end of June to $98.62 at the July close. Year to date, oil prices were still up 31.13%.

Gasoline prices at the pump also dropped in July, with the average price declining from a national average of $5.11 per gallon at the end of June to $4.44 at the July close. Gasoline prices continued to drop in the first week of August to just $4.16 per gallon.

The drop in oil and gasoline prices has been attributed to a combination of factors: consumers have cut back on driving due to the high gasoline prices and recession concerns, and oil prices have dropped due to a rise in inventories, an agreement by oil producing nations to marginally increase production, and concerns regarding a global economic slowdown.

Even after the drop in prices in July, oil prices still ended the month up 31.13% for the year, while gasoline prices were up 31.56%.

International equities rise

Like the U.S. market, international equities rebounded in July, with the MSCI EAFE Index moving up 4.93%, from 1,846.28 at the end of June to 1,937.26 at the July close. Year to date, the index is down 17.07%. (The MSCI EAFE Index tracks developed-economy stocks in Europe, Asia, and Australia.)

How is the economy holding up as the Fed fights inflation? See: Mid-year market assessment from within the eye of the storm, by Steve Lowe, Chief Investment Strategist, Thrivent Asset Management

Media contact: Callie Briese, 612-844-7340;

All information and representations herein are as of 08/05/2022, unless otherwise noted.

The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change, and may differ from views expressed by other Thrivent Asset Management, LLC associates. Actual investment decisions made by Thrivent Asset Management, LLC will not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or product.  Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor's specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.

Any indexes shown are unmanaged and do not reflect the typical costs of investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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