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A strong but volatile start
2025 started off with sustained economic growth, but we are watching waning consumer confidence closely.
2025 started off with sustained economic growth, but we are watching waning consumer confidence closely.
02/07/2025
FUND COMMENTARY
By Cortney Swensen, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager & Andrew Leeser, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager | 02/18/2025
02/18/2025
The new Thrivent Ultra Short Bond ETF (TUSB) is designed for investors looking to reduce duration and potentially pick up yield over cash in normal rate environments.
What types of bonds does the Fund focus on?
Swensen: The Thrivent Ultra Short Bond ETF is a high-quality investment-grade fund. The overall duration of the Fund will generally be around one year or less. Asset classes that comprise the Fund include corporate bonds, asset backed and mortgage backed securities, collateralized loan obligations—or CLOs—and government bonds.
Where does the Fund fit in an investor's portfolio?
Leeser: An ultra short bond fund may provide an opportunity for investors to earn an enhanced yield without taking on significant duration or credit risk. This product could also be a good fit for investors looking to reduce duration in their portfolio and potentially pick up additional yield over cash in normal rate environments.
How has the ultra short category performed in this environment?
Swensen: Ultra short bond funds have performed better than longer maturity bond funds since the Federal Reserve began raising the Fed Funds rate, which is an overnight rate, in early 2022 in their effort to reduce post-pandemic inflation. Even after the Fed ended its hiking cycle in mid-2023 with the Fed Funds rate at over 5%, ultra short funds performed well due to a persistently inverted yield curve, which is when front end yields are higher than the back end. Looking at a history of returns, there have only been two calendar years since 2006 in which the ultra short category had negative returns, and both of these were in periods of the Fed rapidly increasing the Fed Funds rate.
When in the market cycle are short duration funds popular?
Leeser: The rate environment is the biggest factor driving the popularity of short-duration investments. When yields across the curve are elevated, it produces an attractive income stream for investors. Particularly when the yield curve is inverted, yields at the front end of the curve are even more attractive than longer maturities. Furthermore, a time of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty creates significant volatility in the fixed income markets. A short-duration product will be less sensitive to interest rate volatility and offers stability in the portfolio.
What makes this Fund different from its peers?
Swensen: We aim to outperform peers through sector allocation and superior securities selection. Our investment team has a strong track record in categories adjacent to the ultra short bond category. Our experience investing in the front end of the curve, our extensive resources across asset classes and the application of the same rigorous investment process should translate well into the management of the Ultra Short ETF.
What kind of team is managing this Fund?
Swensen: Our investment-grade corporate research team is comprised of seven analysts, with another joining in summer of 2025. All of our analysts have their MBA or CFA, and most have both. We also have three traders that support the investment-grade portfolios. Our securitized team has four dedicated portfolio managers and analysts, and each of these three teams have an average experience level of more than 20 years in the industry, which means they’ve lived through many market environments, including good and bad economic conditions, very wide and very tight spreads, and many flavors of market volatility.
Can you describe your background and experience?
Leeser: I've worked in the financial services industry since 2008, and I've been with Thrivent for over 12 years. I started here as an investment-grade corporate credit analyst, and for the past three years as a portfolio manager, managing investment-grade corporate bond portfolios across the curve. While I'm proud of my growing tenure at Thrivent and developing roots here in Minnesota, growing up I was a bit of a nomad. I've lived in nine different countries spanning South America, Europe and Australia, and I'm fluent in three languages. My return to the U.S. came in pursuit of higher education, as I earned an economics degree from Williams College and later an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
Swensen: So, I started my career as an engineer, but my interest in finance led me back to school for my MBA. I first worked on the sell side, but quickly realized that I wanted to move on to the investment side. I've worked for 18 years on the buy side, 13 of which have been at Thrivent, and over that time I've traded and was a research analyst for both corporate credit and sovereign debt. Eight years ago, I moved into a portfolio manager role, and over that time I've managed the Emerging Market Sovereign Debt Fund, corporate-only portfolios and mixed asset fixed income funds.
What excites you about managing this Fund?
Leeser: I'm excited to collaborate with teams across a variety of asset classes to find the best risk-reward for investors. I enjoy having broader conversations about the relative attractiveness between corporate, asset-backed and government securities, and which specific names best reflect those opportunities. Due to the short duration of the Thrivent Ultra Short Bond ETF, positions will turn over quickly, so a continuous dialog of best ideas will be key to success.